Roadmap Tracking
Comparing stated decentralization roadmaps against current observable status.
Context: "Progressive Decentralization" (coined January 2020) describes a 3-stage model where projects launch centralized, then transition to community control over time. This page tracks stated timelines against current status.
Disclaimer: This page documents publicly stated roadmaps and their current status based on observable data. "Broken" indicates a stated timeline has passed without delivery - not accusations of intent. Project structures evolve. This is educational analysis, not financial advice. Submit corrections with evidence.
22
Timeline Passed
11
In Progress
7
Delivered
4
No Commitment
⏰ TIMELINE PASSED (22)
| Project | Promise | Date | Reality (2024/25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbitrum(ARB) | "Decentralized sequencer coming" | 2022-2023 | Single Sequencer run by Offchain Labs |
| Optimism(OP) | "Progressive decentralization" | 2022 | Single Sequencer, "timelines remain fluid" |
| Uniswap(UNI) | "Community Governance" | Sept 2020 | Top holders control majority voting power |
| Solana(SOL) | "Validator distribution" | 2021 | 7+ coordinated halts since 2020, 50+ hours downtime. Foundation controls delegation. |
| Hyperliquid(HYPE) | "Decentralized perp DEX" | 2024 | 5 Foundation Validators = 81% Stake |
| Compound(COMP) | "Decentralized governance" | 2020 | Top holders dominate all governance votes |
| Aave(AAVE) | "DAO governance" | 2020 | Top 3 voters control 58% of voting power |
| Algorand(ALGO) | "Permissionless relay nodes" | 2021 | Relay nodes still permissioned (2026). Foundation held 63% stake until 2025. xGov scaled back to grant voting only. |
| Polygon(POL) | "Community-driven development" | 2021 | Multiple halts (2022: 11h, 2024: 1h+10h). Low Nakamoto Coefficient, max 105 validators hardcoded. |
| Avalanche(AVAX) | "Decentralized validator network" | 2020 | Feb 2024: 5h halt. Ava Labs controls dev/brand. No token governance. |
| Chainlink(LINK) | "Decentralized oracle network" | 2017 | Chainlink Labs controls node selection, multisigs, and feed composition |
| Stellar(XLM) | "Decentralized financial inclusion" | 2014 | Only 7 Tier-1 orgs. SDF holds 35% supply. No on-chain governance. XLM has no voting rights. |
| Sui(SUI) | "Decentralized Layer 1" | 2023 | Nov 2024: 2h halt (crash loop). 84% staked by insiders. Mysten Labs controls everything. |
| Aptos(APT) | "Decentralized Layer 1" | 2022 | No token governance. 49% insider allocation. Labs controls all development. |
| Bittensor(TAO) | "Fair launch, no VC, no premine" | 2019 | July 2024: Network halted ("safe mode"). Incubated by Polychain 2019. DCG holds 2.4% supply. |
| Internet Computer(ICP) | "Decentralized compute" | 2021 | DFINITY appears to maintain significant control, governance voting shows limited practical impact |
| Render Network(RENDER) | "Decentralized GPU computing" | 2017 | Foundation/team can pause job routing. RenderLabs (for-profit) controls direction. |
| Cosmos(ATOM) | "Internet of blockchains" | 2019 | Cosmos Labs (2025) centralized engineering. Sunsetting stewardship. Validators call it "excessive centralization". |
| Injective(INJ) | "Decentralized derivatives exchange" | 2021 | Only 50 validators, VC-coordinated (Binance, Jump, Pantera). Labs controls everything. |
| Fetch.ai(FET) | "ASI Alliance - Unified AI Ecosystem" | March 2024 | Ocean Protocol exited October 2025. Legal proceedings initiated. |
| Tron(TRX) | "Decentralized internet" | 2017 | Founder appears to maintain dominant control |
| XRP(XRP) | "Decentralized payments" | 2012 | Ripple controls UNL, escrow, and 55B XRP |
📋 IN PROGRESS (11)
| Project | Promise | Date | Reality (2024/25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near(NEAR) | "Progressive decentralization" | 2020 | No halts. Foundation + Pagoda can still coordinate validators. |
| Filecoin(FIL) | "Decentralized storage network" | 2017 | High Nakamoto Coefficient. Protocol Labs influential but miners operate independently. |
| Starknet(STRK) | "Decentralization Roadmap 2025" | 2023 | Still centralized sequencer, deadline approaching |
| Hedera(HBAR) | "Phase 3: Permissionless nodes" | 2020 | 5 years later, still only Council can run nodes |
| Zcash(ZEC) | "Privacy-preserving cryptocurrency" | 2016 | Privacy tech works. ECC and Foundation still influential in governance. |
| Cardano(ADA) | "Peer-reviewed decentralized blockchain" | 2017 | Constitution passed Feb 2025. On-chain governance active. IOG influence declining. |
| TON(TON) | "Decentralized Telegram blockchain" | 2018 | Society DAO (2025) with 3.6M participants. Foundation still dominant. 85% whale-mined supply unchanged. |
| DAI(DAI) | "Decentralized stablecoin" | 2017 | MakerDAO governance concentrated, "Endgame" restructuring underway |
| Lido(LDO) | "Decentralized liquid staking" | 2020 | CSM permissionless Feb 2025. DVT adoption growing. Dual Governance Module active. |
| Virtuals Protocol(VIRTUAL) | "Decentralized AI agents" | 2024 | Too early to assess - project recently launched |
| Ethereum(ETH) | "World computer" | 2015 | Partially delivered. EF influence remains, but improving. |
○ DELIVERED (7)
| Project | Promise | Date | Reality (2024/25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin(BTC) | "Peer-to-peer electronic cash" | 2009 | Delivered. Satoshi disappeared. Truly decentralized. |
| Monero(XMR) | "Private, decentralized money" | 2014 | Delivered. No foundation, community-driven. |
| Litecoin(LTC) | "Lightweight Bitcoin alternative" | 2011 | Fair launch, no premine. Lee sold stake 2017 but still Foundation Director. |
| Dogecoin(DOGE) | "Fun, community-driven cryptocurrency" | 2013 | Fair launch meme coin. No foundation control. |
| Bitcoin Cash(BCH) | "Peer-to-peer electronic cash" | 2017 | Fork delivered on bigger blocks promise. Community-driven. |
| Ethereum Classic(ETC) | "Immutable Ethereum continuation" | 2016 | Maintained original chain after DAO fork. No foundation control. |
| Polkadot(DOT) | "Decentralized interoperability" | 2020 | Sudo removed July 2020. OpenGov on-chain. Parity develops but cannot override governance. |
ℹ️ NO COMMITMENT (4)
| Project | Promise | Date | Reality (2024/25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaspa(KAS) | "Fair launch PoW" | 2021 | Founder: "Kaspa is neither attempting nor pretending to be a fair launch coin." DAGlabs ($8M Polychain) mined ~3% at launch with capital advantage. |
| Tether(USDT) | "N/A - Never claimed decentralization" | - | Centralized stablecoin. At least they're honest. |
| USDC(USDC) | "N/A - Never claimed decentralization" | - | Centralized stablecoin. Regulated, still centralized. |
| BNB Chain(BNB) | "N/A - Binance Chain" | - | Binance-controlled chain. Consistent with positioning. |
Promises are statements about the future.
Metrics reflect the present.
Documentation Approach
- 1.Record stated commitments - From official sources
- 2.Note target dates - When provided
- 3.Compare to current state - Observable metrics
- 4.Categorize status - Delivered, In Progress, or Timeline Passed
Common Patterns
- • "We'll decentralize once we scale" - Check timeline
- • "Security requires temporary centralization" - Check duration
- • "Decentralization roadmap coming soon" - Check dates
- • "Community governance" + VC majority stake - Check voting power
- • "Progressive decentralization" - Check concrete milestones
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